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4th July Shenanigans
I’m worried… gotta admit it.
Take a look at yesterday's bitcoin candle… notice how tiny it is
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/10c2ab78-e78b-4210-b4ba-3778b63e85c1/e18b5ad9-e49c-44f1-b256-9f71cdaca7e7_1488x553.jpg)
There is actually quite a lot of research on these micropee-pee candles… done by an O.G. of quant trading called Toby Crabel.
They represent a total collapse in intraday volatility, which means that nobody is wanting to take a position because it could go either way.
Statistically, these small candles are most often followed by a huge move within 3 days.
And that’s my point.
Everyone’s expecting a 4th July crash.
And I can’t rule that out.
The chart looks like ass, and if we hit that green line all bets are off.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/db8b930d-3fc3-492f-8eb8-12ba0ced7b72/f0b36ff4-2ddd-4d84-a007-587b9ed96dea_1476x560.png)
What really worries me is that some other wrecking ball news comes out tomorrow while my Americano friends are all drunk and high… and nobody is around to buy the dip.
I guess we gotta suck it and see.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/67398781-3bce-4eb1-8eb3-22e44f7de818/aa69bacb-1811-4d79-b66e-0205c71cd808_1600x1200.jpg)
I’ll be keeping an eye on it for you
Scott