The bullish case and the bearish case

You’ve had a crappy week?

See you and raise you…

On Monday I went under anesthetic for a double hip replacement.

Docs rolled me over onto my shoulder during the process, and my shoulder dislocated. 

So I woke up from surgery baffled at why my hips didn’t hurt but my shoulders were in agony.

They put a catheter tube up my penis and since they pulled it out (which hurt exactly like you’d think it would) my bladder muscles are confused and it feels like I’m busting for a piss… 24 hours a day.

Good times.

Of course, giving me enough morphine to get through it has stopped my bowels working, so I got given a laxative with my evening meds last night.

Woke up in a literal puddle of my own runny shit.

What’s been most frustrating, however, is not being well enough to function at my job.

So here we go. Let me give you the update for the week.. The bear case and the bull case and what I think the implications are.

Firstly, stocks rallied exceptionally strongly this week.

That didn’t drag BTC up as fast as it should have, and the rally ran out of steam midweek.

Bitcoin is clearly at major support trapped in a trading range right now. If it breaks down it could get ugly.

It’s been a nothing-to-see type week, which is exactly what we expected.

We have two major possibilities, both about equally weighted in my opinion, maybe the bullish case has a  very slight edge.

Bullish case is that stocks have found a bottom, and we know strong rallies are the key indicator of sustained bullish moves.

Bullish case is that the strongest bullish moves start on the MOST AWFUL sentiment and news. So weirdly, all the nasty shit in the news is a net-positive.

Memba how bearish we all were in 2020 during the Covid crash? Think about that, or about any of the other times in the last decade when this stinking pig of a market looked fucked and yet refused to roll over and die.

The bearish case is that inflation has started a positive feedback loop where shortages of goods and labour drive up wages prices, which further drives up goods prices… and that HAS to be killed at all costs… even if it means hiking interest rates too fast and killing all the risk appetite.

This could happen.

Honestly - it’s a 50/50 call, or near enough to it.

So how do you play it.

Crypto wise, you want to be mostly in BTC. 

Unless you think that BTC will not trade above 30K in the next year (a ludicrous proposition imo) BTC is NOT going to zero.

Many alts, however will go to zero. And the winners of the next cycle probably won’t be the heartbreakers of this cycle.

I’ve got a crypto perpetual futures system for steady cashflow which works in bear markets too.

I’m going to try and get my convalescent ass out of bed tomorrow and start teaching it from first principles.

What I plan to do is teach you all the mechanics of it and then show you how to put it together into a trading business on Thursday 16th June at 7pm EST

Now, I’m running about 20% of my mental and physical capabilities right now, so this is going to need me getting smarter and healthier in a hurry… but I’ll get there.

It’s totally free, and there’s no bullshit upsell or freemium nonsense.

Here’s the deal.

Every few months I teach my whole trading system.

I show you the whole transparent results.

I give you the whole written rules, spreadsheets to make things easier, and everything you need.

And then if you want my help to implement it faster… then I’ll try and sell you something.

But you don’t need it at all.

It’s the opposite of what everyone else does.

So you can register HERE

Scott

P.s. sorry I’m not as witty as usual today