The dark arts of market prediction

Every day brings more clarity

May 16, 2022

Here’s my current take on the price action and on-chain metrics.

Bottom line… by some metrics this shows signs of a major bottom… by others we have one more thrust down first.

If we get another leg down you DO-NOT-WANT to be in anything other than cash or BTC.

I prefer BTC because there is a strong chance the drop down (if we get it) is a v-bottom and you’d be stuck out while the market races higher.

If you aren’t sure if the market is going to go up or down… then you are smart.

I didn’t pick the drop so I’m almost by definition unqualified to call a bottom.

That’s just realistic. This market is behaving so weirdly you’d have to be crazy to have confidence in any predictions right now.

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