The day the music died

I know what you want to know. 

How low will Bitcoin go?

Well right now we are at the “realized price” which is generally very close to a stopping point.

Soon, bros… soon.

Realized price is the average price people have paid for their coins, including way back in the day HODLers.

You can see the usual stopping point is a little dip into underwater territory to scare the children.

I can’t see this support holding, honestly. 

I think we probably get at least to $20K, the old 2018 bull market highs

Below that, sheesh, anything could happen.

Stocks aren’t bouncing here. The Fed isn’t going to step in and save us.

No attempt at gap fill is generally a very ominous sign (most gaps get filled)

5 countem only 5 out of 500 stocks closed positive in the S&P 500 today.

Just be thankful you aren’t Michael Saylor today. Facing down the barrel of a margin call today he must be legit shitting his pants.

If those 115,000 BTC his company owns get liquidated this market is in all kinds of trouble. 

That would probably be the bottom tick.

And that bullshit yield farming is way more interconnected than anyone realizes… the Celcius network blowing up is going to cause a domino effect through the whole smart-ponzi ecosystems.

Life comes at you fast in crypto  - Celsius network is dead.

One day later…oh this is awkward…

Here’s the thing. 

With all this badness going on… support isn’t really support. Under panic situations humans stop being logical and start forming mobs, so you can’t reasonably expect logical buying points to be respected.

^^^^ $19,600 old bull market high support

That being said, we are one decent drop away from it all being over.

This neatly tells the story.

One short sharp crash would do it. 

Pull the band-aid off, I say.

And if you don’t think it's going to crash here… When Jim Cramer reccommends buying the dip we are well and truly fucked 

Here’s the truth. 

Cryptos were created in 2009 so nobody knows how they are going to react to a real recession.

Turns out, not well.

The Fed seems determined to drag us into recession… And the Fed is way more powerful than most people realize.

That being said… Bitcoin (not most other cryptos) is the most antifragile asset ever created.

It’s been called dead more times than I can count.

And yet it survives.

All the “bitcoin killers” are dead, and Bitcoin is still here.

And more useful than ever.

What percentage of your assets can’t be frozen or sanctioned by any government?

Turns out Bitcoin is the only one.

What percentage of your assets can’t be inflated away to nothing?

Turns out Bitcoin is just like gold, except you can’t shove a gold bar up your ass and get out of the country.

Bitcoin WILL trade higher in the long term.

It’s mathematically certain.

I can’t say that about other cryptos, but I can confidently predict that holding BTC will be a horror movie with a happy ending.

Sending you all good vibes. 

If anyone is hurting real bad and needs to talk to someone about it, reach out.

Scott