Endgame

Once a decade or so we get a front row seat to watch markets implode.

I’ve seen greed to turn to fear turn to panic turn to pleading turn to despair…

Turn to hope to joy to greed to euphoria to oh fuckfuckFUCK why didn’t I take profits?…

Over and over again. 

And I’ve learned things about human nature and the nature of markets that I use to feed my family.

It always rhymes not repeats… but the most important things I know about human nature and investing I learned in times just like these.

Here’s the thing with crypto.

We are VERY CLOSE to the end of the bear market.

This is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, which shows total profit or loss by combined market participants.

You can see clearly that we are at a MINIMUM point where the bear market could end, but also that it could get a bit worse before ending.

What’s not in dispute is that every time we get to this situation we are close to the end of the bear market NOT just kicking off an extended crypto winter.

And historically if you bought every time you read “bitcoin is dead” in the headlines you would have done very, very well.

So if you bought right here at BTC $20K I wouldn’t call you wrong… I just think it’s a bit too obvious and you probably have to endure some pain.

The faster it drops from here the more likely we have a V bottom.

And I’d like to point out that the last time the stock market brought crypto down it was a straight shot from $3,800 to $60,000 with no pullbacks.

Here’s the thing.

Bull markets end on euphoria and bear markets end on despair.

We didn’t get euphoria, so it was a most unusual bull market indeed. 

Truth is, the Fed took a shit in the punchbowl and ended the party early. 

They are throwing us into recession ON PURPOSE, to <mumbles about reducing demand>

At a genuine bottom you should really feel like crypto might never come back… that it really could go to zero.

That’s probably a good place to start. When it feels like a “great buy” you might be right, but probably it’s not going to be that easy.

The time when it seems crazy to put more in… 

When it seems obvious in retrospect that Bitcoin was just an artifact of the easy Fed money blowing bubbles in every direction…

When you realize that Bitcoin was invented in 2009 after the GFC and has never been tested in a real recession…

And you might be forgiven for thinking that this time the party’s over for good…

THAT’S what a bottom feels like.

One thing I’d like to point out is that a usual Bitcoin bear market is 80-85% and we got to about 75%

So bottom line… I think something like this is the highest probability

But we have to keep in mind that 3 Arrows Capital gets unwound at around 13.5K so below there all bets are off.

We’ve started a predictable bounce at 20K and a lot depends how much sideline buying is sucked in here.

More sideline buying is less to support it at the real lows.

Fascinating stuff, right?

I’ll be keeping you updated as best I can. 

I do like making myself useful.

I’ll leave you with this. 

When something survives multiple 80-90% drawdowns over a decade… the burden of proof shifts to the detractors.

BTC really looked like it could go to zero in 2015.

In 2018 it was doubtful if it would ever recover.

Every time Bitcoin comes back.

This is what happens in a market without bailouts and interventions.

Things swing wildly. Unimaginable highs, and irrational lows.

Right now we are seeing all the signs of irrational low territory.

So we are very close.

And I’ve got just a couple of spots opened in my calendar tomorrow to explore working together on the crypto salary system.

It would be my absolute pleasure and honor to be in your corner turning you into a real professional during a 12 week sprint.

These spots fill up quick so BOOK HERE

Scott