- Little Guy Finance
- Posts
- A little light macro tourism
A little light macro tourism
don't do this
Conventional wisdom is that the rise of China and the decline of America is baked in.
A foregone conclusion. Just bow down to our new global overlords (except fuck that you commie bastards)
It’s an important principle of “macro tourism” (which you generally shouldn’t do) that the kind of macro forecast where you read the news… combine that into a thesis that makes sense… that everyone agrees on…
You CAN’T make money on that even if you are right.
The kinds of macro forecasts you can actually make money on sound crazy…
No wait, here me out…
There’s an online book selling website, it’s gonna be the biggest business in the whole world.
Sounds crazy, right?
No wait, here me out…
There’s gonna be a biblical plague… and get this! It’s gonna spark the strongest boom in stocks and real estate in 100 years!
Sounds crazy, right?
No no wait, here me out.
There’s this thing called bitcoin, and you can only use it for buying heroin and kiddy porn, but one day it’s gonna be a serious contender to replace the US Dollar…
Crazy! Fingerpainting-in-your-own-shit crazy!
You see what I mean?
The crazy-town ones are the only ones that pay off…
Now compare to everyone’s favorite macro-tourism thesis..
“tHeY’vE pRiNteD sO mUcH mOnEy… buy Gold and Bitcoin”
(full disclosure - I personally did in fact buy both gold and bitcoin just not on that thesis)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd10e4cb-9eac-4845-8713-05c3a53a7a3b/4a22c108-05e2-4d82-87e1-2d7e8c2a0dc3_499x703.jpg)
This is something you’ll see over and over again.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bb68cee0-5d1c-4303-8eff-c6ee97e60d8c/9c28cf1d-3684-4b5a-bdfd-ddca249f2ea7_1015x496.png)
The thing which should cause the thing you own to go up… doesn’t.
Which sucks ass… but not if you know that the ONLY macro tourism you should do is the stuff that sounds crazy.
Consensus forecasts you don’t make money even if you are right.
Here’s a non-consensus forecast worth considering.
Conventional wisdom is that China is rising and America is in decline and that trend is irreversible. But we are in a high technology era, and the people that make the big difference to a nation’s fortunes are the smartest 10,000 or so in each country.
The AVERAGE Chinaman is way smarter than Joe Sixpack in Alabama, no question.
But the smartest .00001% of people in America with their incentives for creativity and risk taking are far better than their Chinese counterparts.
So my unconventional macro thesis is that it’s too early to count America out of the global race.
Can you see how, if this is right, it would catch a lot of smart people by surprise?
That SURPRISE is where the real money is to be made.
This is the real key to long term investing thesis.
They should sound a little nutty.
Obviously… that kind of investing is like painting the Sistine Chapel… enormously skillful and easy to fuck up.
Myself, I’m not the smartest knife in the drawer so I try and stick to my trading systems (unless I really can’t help myself)
Which brings me to my point.
I’m leading another 12 week sprint to mastery of our Crypto Salary System, which continues to get better and better.
Our customer success team has it humming like a finely tuned machine.
Everyone is getting highly skilled, incredibly fast.
CLICK HERE to speak to one of our product enrollment team.
Next - this Thursday 8pm EST (Friday morning for Australians) we have a special free event on mindset for trading.
This event is a favor from my own mindset coach Itamar Marani, and I promise you’ll be blown away.
He’s got nothing to sell, it’s just dumping value on you for free.
Because that’s how we roll
(don’t miss this)
See you there
Scott