Man who pick bottom end up with stinky finger

Trying to decide if I should dump some more cash into crypto I’m reminded of the ancient Chinese investing proverb…

Man who pick bottom end up with smelly finger!

I must have gone through a gazillion charts today and they all look exactly the same.

So how do we know if it’s safe to buy the dip?

Here’s my take.

The one indicator that cannot be faked is the amount of REAL MONEY in bitcoin. When people start taking their money out and doing something else with it… it’s over for a while.

Therefore the one absolutely un-bullshittable indicator is the number of bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance. (ie have real money in them)

You can see how at the last major top in 2018 people rapidly stopped playing the crypto game… and when that recovered the bull market supercycle continued.

So that’s what I’m watching.

I wouldn’t feel confident about calling a major bottom until we see this at all time highs again.

I’ll keep you informed ofc.

Scott