No crypto winter

This is an important one, and I’ve got something to say.

We are fast approaching the obvious-from-space support of the 2018 highs. (somewhere in the range of BTC $19,600-$20,000)

The bullish case is that this line on a chart is special magical thing and buyers must HODL the line.

There’s a couple of price action clues here…

The bulls have made a couple of half hearted attempts to create a floor. 

But using their ammo here, means they haven’t got much firepower for the real battle.

She-eet. Advantage Bears.

But the real thing is that in a forced sale situation lines on charts don’t matter anymore. 

If your counterparties are dumping your bags at market to liquidate you then the price WILL drop, and it will drop irrespective of lines on charts.

It seems the tide has gone out, and we see who is swimming naked.

Turns out every last bit of that “yield farming” bullshit, was in fact bullshit.

BTC or ETH don’t pay an interest rate… so how in the actual fuck do you get paid?

Where does it come from? 

I hate Boomer-weirdo goldtard Peter Schiff, but he really does wipe the floor with the Celcius (ponzi) CEO

So here’s the deal.

There are BILLIONS of dollars worth of these “crypto banks” that offered to pay a rIsK fReE yIeLd on your BTC or ETH.

They ALL cross invested in each other.

They all lent to each other and borrowed to each other.

It’s a circle jerk of biblical proportions.

If you have any money in any of this bullshit… take the penalties and get it out NOW.

Seriously.

Now. Not tomorrow. Your funds are NOT SAFU you dumbass what in the fuck were you thinking?

Contagion is already started.

3AC gets unwound at $13,602 BTC 

Magic Internet Money just depegged.

Babel capital (largest Chinese crypto lender) just shut down the ability to withdraw

Do you think the whales are just going to step in and save your sorry asses now?

Who in their right mind would buy until all this is resolved.

So NO, 20K will not hold.

(good thing AWCE got you out, right?)

Where does it stop?

Well there’s a couple of factors in play.

The trad-fi markets are currently overseeing the literal largest wealth destruction in modern market history.

The stonk market movie theater took 13 years to fill up, and the exits are very narrow, so it’s unlikely as hell that everyone exits the theater inside a year

The bond market is pricing in massive rate rises over the next years 

The upshot of this is that a decade of low interest rates have created malinvestment. 

We put the wealth of society into into food delivery startups and not oil wells and nuclear power stations… in the search for vanishing yield.

As yield got more and more scarce, investors moved further out on the risk curve into semi-ponzi’s and never-profitable-startup land.

Trillions of dollars of capital is pointing the wrong way.

Trillions of dollars is optimized for a zero-yield world… and the Fed just made it bizarro world.

This is gonna take some time to work out.

There will be pain.

That’s the bad news… want the good news?

The good news is that the pain is almost over for BTC, and just beginning for Alts.

You see, BTC and ETH are being sold off now because they are the most liquid things… but eventually these blown up funds will have to sell their shitcoins too. 

And that forced selling will probably drop alts a further 80% from their current 80-90% drops.

So sell your alts.

Think like the 2008 subprime crisis without the bailouts.

There is the good news.

The cleansing fire will burn the scams and fools like always.

And Bitcoin will survive ANOTHER “bitcoin is dead” crisis.

In the middle of all this fuckery, adoption is near all time highs.

And the REASON Bitcoin was created… is because reckless money printing is debasing fiat currency.

Have you forgotten what this is really all about?

I don’t care that Bitcoiners aren’t getting girlfriends this Christmas.

I care that we maintain a classic S shape network effect adoption curve

You see, all new tech that eventually dominates follows this adoption curve

Once it reaches a certain point its unstoppable. It’s how facebook, google, uber, airbnb… all of them became dominant.

Now look at the adoption curve here

Projecting it out into the future it looks like this.

Now, I’m not saying that all this will come to pass.

I’m saying that after this cycle Bitcoin is still the undisputed king. 

The mighty corn vanquished worthy challengers and emerged dominant.

So either crypto is dead, and it’s all going to zero…

OR

Bitcoin is even more dominant than before.

And trading at the low range of it’s cost of production.

It can briefly dip below the cost of production, but can’t stay there indefinitely.

Here’s what I think is the “max pain” trade.

BTC fails to hold 20K support.

It drops to somewhere between 7K and 15K depending on whether the big players step in to support the market.

Obviously I’m watching this thing and I’ll tell you when I think it’s safe to get back in the water.

In other news… our Crypto Salary System just keeps chugging along.

Steady as a rock.

Nothing touches it, nothing hurts it.

Even now, its printing cash.

I’d love to work with you to implement it.

Click HERE to apply

And if you haven’t seen the live webinar I just did - here is the replay

Enjoy your weekend

Scott