punched in the c**k

The just SEC charged Binance owner CZ with being an all-around bad guy, and upped their shitposting game by tweeting a hilariously awkward quote by Binance’s chief compliance officer. (documents here)

Ouch.

This is all pretty annoying to me.

You see, yesterday I took my first discretionary trade in months, seeing a nice squeeze opportunity playing out in REN.

It was well in profit until the Binance news hit the market like a wrecking ball (which happens, paid for taking risk innit?)

So the question we need to answer is “is this the start of a bigger move down” or “was this a one off, already priced in?”

On a pure price action basis, this close below previous range lows is bearish and should predict lower prices.

But not so fast.

The options market isn’t pricing in ANY increase in volatility

Therefore the move is probably priced in, and therefore a one-off cock punch

But thankfully our system was pretty neutrally positioned yesterday and flipped to a very small short today 

You can see we are still mostly short the shitcoins and long the better-ish stuff (though that’s a relative term)

Everything looks pretty GREAT to me from here.

The system did its job, kept us out of trouble.

No muss, no fuss

Scott

P.s. If you are wondering how to handle a trade like my one in REN yesterday which got slapped upside the head… here’s the deal.

I *had* edge, in that a squeeze was in play and open interest was rising (indicating that other people were piling in)

I have no edge as the open interest is back to normal, therefore I have no business being in the trade. 

There was a clue, but I was asleep, so didn’t get the memo. Doh.