If wishes were fishes we'd all swim away

May 18, 2022

I think it’s important to work out what is true about the recent market meltdown.

Not opinions. Not ideas. Just the facts first. 

During the recent shit-fuckery 88,000 BTC owned by the Luna-wank-foundation got transferred to exchanges.

This is important because before you can sell a coin you have to first send it to an exchange, so traders monitor this to see when collapses and waterfall declines can happen.

You can see clearly when the shit was about to hit the fan.

But of that 88K, 80,394 BTC was from the Luna Foundation Guard, so only an extra 7600 BTC was from other people freaked out by this.

These muppets sold 80,394 BTC and used the money to buy UST (which is near worthless).

Possibly the dumbest financial move of all time.

A true gold for magic beans situation.

What’s interesting to me is that despite a full blown market crash, only 7600 of real people’s bit-corn made it’s way to the exchanges.

Bitcoin held up better than you might expect in the circumstances. 

Alts didn’t, alts got fucked, but alts always get fucked in a bear market.

Still, BTC broke the long standing support at the July lows.

Which triggered a LOT of stops.

This stop run freaked everyone (including me) out, and caused Tether to de-peg.

Obviously people were freaking out about a second stablecoin potentially collapsing and fortunately Tether is more robust than anyone thought.

Tether weathered the storm, but got as low as .95 to the dollar. The “better” stablecoins went up as people paid a premium to hold the safer stablecoins.

Where are we now?

It’s actually pretty clear.

Below the green line we probably have a short, sharp, and quickly reversed panic sell which would probably be the cheapest BTC you’ll see in your life. 

I’ll be buying if it happens.

Above the green line we have two scenarios.

The lower probability outcome is a V bottom, BTC shakes it off and rallies hard.

Alts would probably continue to lag, but what do you expect, altcoins are a risky investment and nobody’s feeling risky-frisky anymore.

The highest probability is a slow, boring grind out of trouble.

What you should do is examine every bit of new evidence to see which of those 3 scenarios (puke lower, grind higher, V-bottom) are more consistent with the evidence.

Or you can just read your emails. I’ll be doing it for ya.

That’s all I got for today.

Scott

P.s. We are about to take a new intake into our perpetual futures system which is the only thing I’ve ever seen that works in both up and down crypto markets.

It’s been steady and stable as a rock through this whole shit-fuckery and the people who trade it are setting up little shrines with pictures of me thanking them for saving their degen asses.

I put together a webinar with the full rules (nothing held back)

And if you want my help implementing it well I love money and I’d be delighted to work with you… click here to book a call